Saturday, March 12, 2016

Final Bracket for 2016!
Incredibly difficult year. I do not envy the Selection Committee this season, including both selecting entrants and seeding. There is no definition anywhere, including at the 1 line. Kansas is the only guaranteed 1 seed.

Some other thoughts:
* There will be some disappointed fans in Lexington, Kentucky, as the UK Wildcats are just 2-2 against the top 50 versus 3 sub 100 losses (2 very questionable ones in Auburn and Tennessee.) If they get a 3 seed... that is generous.
* Part of the problem for UK was the SEC was terrible. South Carolina finished third in the conference... and played a grand total of TWO top 50 games (beat Texas A&M, lost to UK.) They did beat #54 Hofstra on a neutral court for their second best win. They are in deep trouble and I don't think they get in, unless the committee goes on blind conference affiliation and takes 3 from the SEC just because.
* There will be a referendum at the end of the bracket on mid-major versus "middling" major. I have in the past cited studies proving the mid-major is the correct choice as their performance in the Tournament is far superior to the middling majors. But realistically, there is no way to compare Florida and Michigan to Monmouth and Hofstra and St. Mary's. UF and UM had a combined 24 shots at top 50 wins and took down a combined 6 (25% winning percentage with half of those games at home). Monmouth, Hofstra, Valpo, and St. Mary's matched those 6 wins in 12 tries, with all but two of those games on the road. I hope the committee looks at the uphill road mid-majors face- zero chances at top wins at home, having to take buy games to fund the program, all kinds of landmine games in conference, etc. when making these final cuts, and the landmark it can provide for the programs. If Michigan plays in the First Four this year, nobody cares- it's already a lost year in Wolverine fans' eyes and it matters to nobody outside of Ann Arbor. If Hofstra gets an at-large bid, it validates the years of building the program and increases the profile significantly. VCU got a league upgrade off ONE (roundly criticized) shot at an at-large for god sakes. I'll go to my grave that in 2007 the snub of Drexel, with 4 top 50 ROAD wins and 13 total road wins, for Stanford was the one of the worst ever, especially since the CAA had proven its worth and then some the previous season. The team that knocked them out, VCU, beat Duke in the first round. Stanford promptly lost by 30.

I would really like to see all the top mid-major #1 seeds that lost in their conference tournament get in, including the #8 AAC (Temple), #9 CAA (Hofstra), #10 MAC (Akron), #12 MWC (SDSU), #14 WCC (St Mary's), #19 MAAC (Monmouth), and #20 Horizon (Valpo.) But realistically that won't happen. Of these, Temple, Hofstra, and Monmouth have the best pure resumes. I have a feeling SDSU and St. Mary's will be the ones that get in, however.

* NOTE: If Memphis wins tomorrow against UConn, Butler falls to the First Four and SDSU is out. If Little Rock loses, it is unlikely they will get in.

RPI TEAM CONF SOS NONCONF SOS Record Home Road Neutral 1-50 51-100 Top 100 101-200 Top 200 200+ Conf Leader Seed 3/12/16 S-Curve
1 Kansas Big 12 1 22 29-4 17-0 7-3 5-1 15-3 5-0 20-3 6-1 26-4 3-0 Y 1 1
2 Oregon Pac 12 5 17 26-6 17-0 6-5 3-1 9-3 10-1 19-4 2-2 21-6 5-0 Y 1 2
4 Villanova Big East 15 15 29-5 15-1 10-2 4-2 7-5 6-0 13-5 8-0 21-5 8-0 1 4
5 North Carolina ACC 21 58 28-6 15-1 6-5 7-0 5-5 10-1 15-6 8-0 23-6 5-0 Y 1 3
6 Oklahoma Big 12 12 95 25-7 14-1 7-5 4-1 10-6 3-1 13-7 9-0 22-7 3-0 2 5
7 Utah Pac 12 10 21 25-7 15-1 5-5 5-1 9-6 9-1 18-7 1-0 19-7 6-0 2 8
8 Xavier Big East 32 90 27-5 15-1 8-3 4-1 6-3 5-0 11-3 10-2 21-5 6-0 2 7
11 Michigan State Big Ten 56 129 28-5 14-2 7-3 7-0 7-4 5-0 12-4 8-1 20-5 8-0 Y 2 6
3 Virginia ACC 2 18 26-7 15-0 5-6 6-1 9-3 7-4 16-7 7-0 23-7 3-0 3 9
9 Miami (FL) ACC 16 84 25-7 15-1 6-5 4-1 7-3 9-1 16-4 5-3 21-7 4-0 3 10
10 West Virginia Big 12 14 113 26-8 13-2 7-4 6-2 9-7 4-1 13-8 8-0 21-8 5-0 3 11
12 Kentucky SEC 27 13 25-8 17-0 4-7 4-1 2-2 12-3 14-5 7-3 21-8 4-0 Y 3 12
14 Purdue Big Ten 45 118 26-7 17-1 5-5 4-1 4-4 6-2 10-6 11-1 21-7 5-0 4 15
15 Maryland Big Ten 33 116 24-8 15-1 4-6 5-1 5-6 3-1 8-7 10-0 18-7 6-1 4 13
18 Texas A&M SEC 57 44 26-7 17-1 5-5 4-1 5-0 9-6 14-6 6-1 20-7 6-0 4 14
20 Duke ACC 7 7 23-10 15-3 5-4 3-3 6-7 6-2 12-9 8-1 20-10 3-0 4 16
16 California Pac 12 13 83 23-10 18-0 4-7 1-3 7-8 7-1 14-9 4-1 18-10 5-0 5 17
19 Seton Hall Big East 41 229 25-8 13-3 7-4 5-1 6-3 2-4 8-7 7-1 15-8 10-0 Y 5 18
24 Indiana Big Ten 86 192 25-7 17-0 6-4 2-3 6-3 3-1 9-4 8-3 17-7 8-0 5 19
25 Baylor Big 12 4 65 21-11 14-5 6-5 1-1 5-11 5-0 10-11 6-0 16-11 5-0 5 20
22 Iowa State Big 12 8 64 21-11 14-2 4-7 3-2 8-10 4-1 12-11 6-0 18-11 3-0 6 21
26 Arizona Pac 12 69 232 25-8 17-1 5-5 3-2 4-6 9-1 13-7 4-1 17-8 8-0 6 24
27 Texas Big 12 3 19 20-12 14-3 5-5 1-4 7-9 6-2 13-11 4-1 17-12 3-0 6 22
32 Notre Dame ACC 26 74 21-11 14-2 5-5 2-4 5-5 3-6 8-11 6-0 14-11 7-0 6 23
21 Dayton Atlantic 10 48 9 25-7 14-3 8-2 3-2 3-5 6-0 9-5 12-1 21-6 4-1 7 26
23 Saint Joseph's Atlantic 10 58 70 26-7 12-4 9-2 5-1 3-4 5-2 8-6 11-1 19-7 7-0 Y 7 27
29 Iowa Big Ten 34 117 21-10 13-2 6-5 2-3 5-7 3-1 8-8 6-2 14-10 7-0 7 25
34 Colorado Pac 12 38 133 21-11 15-1 4-7 2-3 4-8 5-2 9-10 5-1 14-11 7-0 7 28
31 Virginia Commonwealth Atlantic 10 70 57 24-9 15-2 7-4 2-3 2-4 6-3 8-7 10-2 18-9 6-0 8 30
35 Texas Tech Big 12 9 29 19-12 14-3 3-7 2-2 6-9 2-1 8-10 8-2 16-12 3-0 8 29
39 Providence Big East 49 215 23-10 13-4 7-4 3-2 2-7 4-0 6-7 8-2 14-9 9-1 8 31
41 Connecticut American Athletic 53 107 23-10 14-3 6-4 3-3 3-5 5-5 8-10 5-0 13-10 10-0 Y 8 32
33 Oregon State Pac 12 11 59 18-12 13-3 4-8 1-1 4-8 7-3 11-11 2-1 13-12 5-0 9 34
42 Wisconsin Big Ten 17 36 20-12 13-5 6-5 1-2 5-6 6-0 11-6 5-5 16-11 4-1 9 33
48 Cincinnati American Athletic 68 144 22-10 14-3 6-6 2-1 4-4 3-5 7-9 3-1 10-10 12-0 9 36
51 USC Pac 12 30 88 21-12 16-2 3-7 2-3 5-8 4-4 9-12 5-0 14-12 7-0 9 35
30 Saint Bonaventure Atlantic 10 81 152 22-8 14-2 8-5 0-1 3-2 4-4 7-6 8-1 15-7 7-1 10 37
47 Wichita State Missouri Valley 103 12 23-8 13-1 9-3 1-4 1-2 3-5 4-7 8-1 12-8 11-0 10 38
52 Pittsburgh ACC 29 190 20-11 14-4 3-6 3-1 2-7 7-2 9-9 6-2 15-11 5-0 10 39
56 Butler Big East 75 243 21-10 13-3 5-5 3-2 4-8 1-0 5-8 7-2 12-10 9-0 10 40
44 UNC Wilmington Colonial Athletic 131 305 23-7 10-2 8-5 5-0 0-0 4-2 4-2 10-4 14-6 9-1 Y 11 46
46 Gonzaga West Coast 109 54 25-7 11-4 9-2 5-1 2-5 3-1 5-6 4-1 9-7 16-0 Y 11 41
37 Saint Mary's College West Coast 148 169 26-5 17-1 7-3 2-1 2-2 4-1 6-3 2-2 8-5 18-0 11P 44
38 San Diego State Mountain West 59 2 23-9 11-4 9-2 3-3 1-4 2-3 3-7 15-1 18-8 5-1 11P 45
53 Monmouth MAAC 165 100 27-7 10-1 13-4 4-2 1-1 4-3 5-4 6-0 11-4 16-3 11P 42
59 Temple American Athletic 74 73 21-11 11-3 7-4 3-4 5-6 2-3 7-9 1-1 8-10 13-1 11P 43
28 South Dakota State The Summit League 133 130 24-7 10-0 8-7 6-0 0-1 3-1 3-2 15-4 18-6 6-1 Y 12 47
43 Yale Ivy League 163 149 21-6 11-0 9-6 1-0 1-3 0-1 1-4 7-2 8-6 13-0 Y 12 49
45 Arkansas-Little Rock Sun Belt 240 278 26-4 12-0 12-4 2-0 1-1 2-1 3-2 8-0 11-2 15-2 Y 12 48
49 Chattanooga Southern 204 153 27-5 11-1 11-4 5-0 1-1 4-1 5-2 10-2 15-4 12-1 Y 12 50
60 Stony Brook America East 199 41 24-6 13-1 11-5 0-0 1-1 1-1 2-2 7-4 9-6 15-0 Y 13 51
61 Stephen F. Austin Southland 235 122 23-5 10-0 9-4 4-1 0-1 3-3 3-4 5-0 8-4 15-1 Y 13 53
66 Fresno State Mountain West 130 203 23-9 14-2 7-7 2-0 2-3 0-1 2-4 13-3 15-7 8-2 Y 13 52
70 Northern Iowa Missouri Valley 92 38 21-12 10-3 6-8 5-1 4-1 4-2 8-3 5-6 13-9 8-3 Y 13 54
78 Middle Tennessee Conference USA 150 43 22-9 10-3 7-5 5-1 0-2 1-2 1-4 9-5 10-9 12-0 Y 14 55
79 Iona MAAC 147 72 22-10 11-2 8-6 3-2 0-3 4-4 4-7 2-2 6-9 16-1 Y 14 56
88 Hawaii Big West 243 258 24-5 15-3 7-2 2-0 0-2 6-2 6-4 3-0 9-4 15-1 M 14 57
91 Buffalo Mid-American 87 78 19-14 9-5 5-9 5-0 1-7 1-2 2-9 10-4 12-13 7-1 Y 14 58
109 Weber State Big Sky 289 141 23-8 10-1 7-6 6-1 1-1 0-1 1-2 4-3 5-5 18-3 Y 15 61
113 Green Bay Horizon League 205 237 21-12 9-3 8-9 4-0 2-3 0-3 2-6 7-5 9-11 12-1 Y 15 59
134 Cal State Bakersfield Western Athletic 317 267 20-8 11-1 7-7 2-0 0-1 1-3 1-4 2-4 3-8 17-0 Y 15 62
138 UNC Asheville Big South 233 123 20-11 9-3 6-7 5-1 0-1 1-1 1-2 5-9 6-11 14-0 Y 15 60
155 Hampton MEAC 322 85 20-10 8-2 8-7 4-1 0-3 1-2 1-5 0-1 1-6 19-4 Y 16 63
186 Southern SWAC 336 191 19-12 9-1 6-10 4-1 0-0 0-1 0-1 4-5 4-6 15-6 Y 16 64
189 Austin Peay Ohio Valley 200 132 16-17 5-7 7-9 4-1 0-1 1-6 1-7 4-5 5-12 11-5 Y 16P 67
204 Fairleigh Dickinson Northeast 297 171 17-14 8-6 9-8 0-0 0-2 0-1 0-3 3-2 3-5 14-9 Y 16P 65
208 Florida Gulf Coast Atlantic Sun 278 135 16-13 12-4 4-9 0-0 0-2 0-2 0-4 3-3 3-7 13-6 Y 16P 66
248 Holy Cross Patriot League 287 297 14-19 8-6 6-13 0-0 0-1 0-0 0-1 4-8 4-9 10-10 Y 16P 68
50 Valparaiso Horizon League 161 50 24-6 12-1 12-4 0-1 1-1 3-1 4-2 10-4 14-6 10-0 F4O
54 Hofstra Colonial Athletic 107 150 23-9 10-2 9-4 4-3 2-2 4-3 6-5 7-4 13-9 10-0 F4O
57 Michigan Big Ten 44 189 21-12 12-4 4-6 5-2 4-11 0-1 4-12 8-0 12-12 9-0 F4O
65 South Carolina SEC 125 269 23-8 14-2 5-5 4-1 1-1 7-4 8-5 8-2 16-7 7-1 F4O
36 Akron Mid-American 122 207 25-8 14-0 6-7 5-1 0-1 6-1 6-2 9-6 15-8 10-0 X N4O
55 Florida SEC 18 5 19-14 12-4 4-8 3-2 2-7 5-6 7-13 7-1 14-14 5-0 N4O
58 Tulsa American Athletic 63 105 20-11 12-3 6-6 2-2 4-5 4-3 8-8 2-3 10-11 10-0 N4O
62 Vanderbilt SEC 37 24 19-13 14-2 3-9 2-2 2-7 5-3 7-10 8-3 15-13 4-0 N4O