Sunday, March 11, 2012

Final Bracket- 5:20PM

Flip flop Michigan State and Missouri if MSU wins.
SOUTH
1 Kentucky
16 Vermont/Western Kentucky
8 Cincinnati
9 Kansas State
4 Indiana
13 Saint Bonaventure
5 Memphis
12 South Florida/North Carolina State
3 Baylor
14 Lehigh
6 Creighton
11 Virginia Commonwealth
7 Gonzaga
10 Southern Miss
2 Duke
15 Belmont
EAST
1 Syracuse
16 Lamar/Mississippi Valley State
8 Iowa State
9 Notre Dame
4 Wichita State
13 New Mexico State
5 Wisconsin
12 Texas/Drexel
3 Marquette
14 Ohio
6 Vanderbilt
11 Long Beach State
7 San Diego State
10 West Virginia
2 Ohio State
15 Detroit
MIDWEST
1 North Carolina
16 Norfolk State
8 Saint Mary's College
9 Purdue
4 Georgetown
13 South Dakota State
5 UNLV
12 BYU
3 Michigan
14 Montana
6 Murray State
11 California
7 Florida
10 Harvard
2 Kansas
15 Long Island
WEST
1 Missouri
16 UNC Asheville
8 Saint Louis
9 Alabama
4 Louisville
13 Colorado
5 New Mexico
12 Xavier
3 Florida State
14 Davidson
6 Temple
11 Virginia
7 Connecticut
10 Colorado State
2 Michigan State
15 Loyola-Maryland

Last 6 out:
Seton Hall
Mississippi State
Ole Miss
Iona
Marshall
Washington

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

3/6 Update

Definite one bid leagues + IN via Autobid (20)
America East
Atlantic Sun- BELMONT
Big Sky- Montana/Weber
Big South- NC ASHEVILLE
CAA- Virginia Commonwealth
Horizon- DETROIT
Ivy- HARVARD
MAAC- Loyola (MD)
MAC
MEAC
MVC- Creighton
Northeast
Ohio Valley- MURRAY ST
Patriot League
Southern- Davidson
Southland
Summit- South Dakota St
Sun Belt- WKU
SWAC
WCC- Saint Mary's College

Locks/Near Locks (33)
Alabama
Baylor
Duke
Florida
Florida State
Georgetown
Gonzaga
Indiana
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Kentucky
Louisville
Marquette
Memphis
Michigan
Michigan State
Missouri
New Mexico
North Carolina
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Purdue
Saint Louis
San Diego State
Southern Miss
Syracuse
Temple
UNLV
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Wichita State
Wisconsin

Probably in, barring unforseen circumstance (4)
Cincinnati
California
Connecticut
West Virginia

Potential Bid Stealers (2)
Nevada
Long Beach State

Bubble with odds (9 spots available):
Colorado State 65%
Mississippi State 60%
BYU 55%
Drexel 50%
Seton Hall 45%
South Florida 40%
Oregon 40%
Northwestern 35%
Washington 35%
Saint Joseph's 35%
Xavier 35%
Texas 30%
Miami 30%
Tennessee 25%
Iona 25%
Oral Roberts 20%
North Carolina State 20%
Dayton 15%
Arizona 15%
Marshall 10%
UCF 0%
New Mexico State 0%
LSU 0%

Saturday, March 3, 2012

Bubble Math- 3/3/12

So here we are again- 8 days from Selection Sunday. Looking at the current landscape, I see 13 spots available.

One Bid Leagues (14):
America East
Atlantic Sun- BELMONT
Big Sky
Big South- NC ASHEVILLE
Horizon
MEAC
Northeast
Patriot League
Southland
Sun Belt
SWAC
Southern
MAC
Ohio Valley- MURRAY ST

Locks/Near locks (>=85%)
Baylor 100%
Duke 100%
Florida 100%
Florida State 100%
Georgetown 100%
Gonzaga 100%
Indiana 100%
Kansas 100%
Kentucky 100%
Louisville 100%
Marquette 100%
Michigan 100%
Michigan State 100%
Missouri 100%
North Carolina 100%
Ohio State 100%
Syracuse 100%
Temple 100%
UNLV 100%
Wichita State 100%
Wisconsin 100%
San Diego State 100%
Creighton 100%
New Mexico 100%
Vanderbilt 100%
Saint Mary's College 100%
Iowa State 100%
Saint Louis 95%
Notre Dame 95%
Memphis 95%
Kansas State 90%
Purdue 85%

Probably in, barring collapse (3):
Alabama 80%
Southern Miss 75%
Virginia70%

Potential bid stealers (6):
Harvard 75%
Iona 50%
Long Beach State 40%
Drexel 40%
Oral Roberts 40%
Nevada 20%

Bubble with my current odds (13 spots available):
California 65%
Cincinnati 65%
South Florida 50%
Connecticut 50%
West Virginia 50%
BYU 50%
Miami 35%
Virginia Commonwealth 35%
Oregon 35%
Colorado State 35%
Northwestern 35%
Mississippi State 30%
Washington 30%
Xavier 30%
Saint Joseph's 30%
Arizona 30%
North Carolina State 25%
Seton Hall 20%
Texas 20%
Dayton 10%
UCF 10%
South Dakota State 10%