So here we are again- 8 days from Selection Sunday. Looking at the current landscape, I see 13 spots available.
One Bid Leagues (14):
| America East |
| Atlantic Sun- BELMONT |
| Big Sky |
| Big South- NC ASHEVILLE |
| Horizon |
| MEAC |
| Northeast |
| Patriot League |
| Southland |
| Sun Belt |
| SWAC |
| Southern |
| MAC |
| Ohio Valley- MURRAY ST |
Locks/Near locks (>=85%)
| Baylor | 100% |
| Duke | 100% |
| Florida | 100% |
| Florida State | 100% |
| Georgetown | 100% |
| Gonzaga | 100% |
| Indiana | 100% |
| Kansas | 100% |
| Kentucky | 100% |
| Louisville | 100% |
| Marquette | 100% |
| Michigan | 100% |
| Michigan State | 100% |
| Missouri | 100% |
| North Carolina | 100% |
| Ohio State | 100% |
| Syracuse | 100% |
| Temple | 100% |
| UNLV | 100% |
| Wichita State | 100% |
| Wisconsin | 100% |
| San Diego State | 100% |
| Creighton | 100% |
| New Mexico | 100% |
| Vanderbilt | 100% |
| Saint Mary's College | 100% |
| Iowa State | 100% |
| Saint Louis | 95% |
| Notre Dame | 95% |
| Memphis | 95% |
| Kansas State | 90% |
| Purdue | 85% |
Probably in, barring collapse (3):
| Alabama | 80% |
| Southern Miss | 75% |
Potential bid stealers (6):
| Harvard | 75% |
| Iona | 50% |
| Long Beach State | 40% |
| Drexel | 40% |
| Oral Roberts | 40% |
| Nevada | 20% |
Bubble with my current odds (13 spots available):
| California | 65% |
| Cincinnati | 65% |
| South Florida | 50% |
| Connecticut | 50% |
| West Virginia | 50% |
| BYU | 50% |
| Miami | 35% |
| Virginia Commonwealth | 35% |
| Oregon | 35% |
| Colorado State | 35% |
| Northwestern | 35% |
| Mississippi State | 30% |
| Washington | 30% |
| Xavier | 30% |
| Saint Joseph's | 30% |
| Arizona | 30% |
| North Carolina State | 25% |
| Seton Hall | 20% |
| Texas | 20% |
| Dayton | 10% |
| UCF | 10% |
| South Dakota State | 10% |
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