Sunday, March 13, 2011

4:05 ET Update

* No change to the Richmond Spiders (whom I like to do some damage in the Tournament), who I had anticipated winning today, therefore moving them up to a 10.

* Kentucky winning over Florida means they both are likely a natural 3 seed. Things worked out better when UK was a 4 and Florida was a 2- and by the rules of bracketing I can leave them as they are.

* Duke over UNC was inconsequential as I had already swapped Notre Dame and Duke for the last 1 seed.

* Penn St is hanging with Ohio State. A win would probably be worth a seed line- but I doubt the committee would want to make a change at this late hour, and obviously a loss doesn't hurt them, so I think if they had them as an 11 before that's where they will be and likewise as a 12. Either way, I think they are ahead of those in the First Four.

* I'm sticking to my guns with VCU and Alabama over Georgia and USC. I know the committee has ruled against the "VCU Profile" in the past (see: Hofstra '06, Drexel '07, W&M '10) but their resume is more complete than the rest. And while I don't like Alabama AT ALL, I can't see the committee leaving out a 13 win SEC team.

(Semi-)Final Bracket 3/13

We are here. Selection Sunday, the day college basketball fans across the nation wait for. (It's also the start of daylight savings time so move your clocks forward.) I am on the West Coast today, and have been up for 42 hours straight with only 1 hour of sleep, so hopefully my final analysis isn't off due to that.

Here it is:

FINAL BRACKET
EAST
WASHINGTON, DC
1 PITTSBURGH
16 AKRON
8 TEXAS A&M
9 FLORIDA ST
TAMPA
4 KENTUCKY
13 BELMONT
5 WEST VIRGINIA
12 VCU/VIRGINIA TECH
TUCSON
2 SAN DIEGO ST
15 ST. PETERS
7 TEMPLE
10 GONZAGA
CHICAGO
3 PURDUE
14 LONG ISLAND
6 ARIZONA
11 MARQUETTE
SOUTH
TULSA
1 KANSAS
16 ALABAMA ST/UCSB
8 CINCINNATI
9 UCLA
TUCSON
4 WISCONSIN
13 PRINCETON
5 ST. JOHNS
12 CLEMSON/ALABAMA
TAMPA
2 FLORIDA
15 BOSTON U
7 XAVIER
10 VILLANOVA
WASHINGTON, DC
3 CONNECTICUT
14 MOREHEAD ST
6 OLD DOMINION
11 COLORADO
MIDWEST
CLEVELAND
1 OHIO ST
16 TEX-SA/UALR
8 GEORGE MASON
9 UTAH ST
CLEVELAND
4 SYRACUSE
13 INDIANA ST
5 VANDERBILT
12 PENN ST
CHARLOTTE
2 NORTH CAROLINA
15 UNC-ASHEVILLE
7 WASHINGTON
10 RICHMOND
DENVER
3 BYU
14 WOFFORD
6 KANSAS ST
11 ILLINOIS
WEST
CHARLOTTE
1 DUKE
16 NORTHERN COLORADO
8 MISSOURI
9 MICHIGAN
DENVER
4 LOUISVILLE
13 OAKLAND
5 ARIZONA
12 MICHIGAN ST
CHICAGO
2 NOTRE DAME
15 HAMPTON
7 TENNESSEE
10 BUTLER
TULSA
3 TEXAS
14 BUCKNELL
6 UNLV
11 MEMPHIS

In looking at the final 4 spots for the First Four group, it came down to selecting from a pool of 10: Alabama, BC, Clemson, Georgia, Harvard, USC, UAB, St. Mary's, Virginia Tech, and VCU.

Now, I would have preferred to stick with one or two metrics to finalize the decision but I think it's more complicated than that. Alabama, even with their 81 RPI and 5-8 record against the top 100 with 3 bad losses, will get selected based on their 13 conference wins (including the SEC Tournament.) Clemson beat up BC in a virtual elimination game and has . Virginia Tech, ye of bubble life, may have got the golden ticket by .05 of a second with the win over FSU, which left them at 8-9 vs. the top 100 after today's loss. A loss to FSU may have doomed them to (another) NIT. Finally, while all of the remainders have warts, VCU got the final spot. Yes, they lost 4 in a row to close the season. But they also bounced back and won 2 big games in the CAA tournament and sandwiched in a good road win at Wichita in that losing streak. They are 8-8 vs. the top 100 with 3 big wins vs UCLA, ODU, and GMU- all neutral or away games. USC would be next, highlighted by their top end wins, but I can't get past the 6 sub 100 losses. UAB was 2nd out, and while I think CUSA is better than credited for the rest of their resume is really kind of dull. Their best win was VCU, at home. If I miss on a team (or two), it will be Alabama and/or VCU.

* Note that if Dayton beats Richmond tomorrow, Michigan St falls into the First Four and Dayton takes their 12 seed and VCU is out.

Friday, March 11, 2011

3/11 Midday Update

Lots of action today. Most interesting doings in the Big 10 (11? 12?) , the SEC, and the ACC. Michigan dumps Illinois with a big rally, dropping Illinois to an 11 and solidifying Michigan's spot. Alabama steals one from Georgia (now just 5-11 vs the top 100) and in the process replaces them in the bracket. Clemson hammers BC, and takes their spot over. Clemson has played really well lately and while their resume isn't superb it's good enough to jump over the First Four and into the last protected spot. Michigan State really could use a win tonight against Purdue and Virginia Tech, same deal against Florida State. St. Mary's was bumped by UAB losing (who drops into the First Four group), but that situation is very fluid and I may revise that- UAB, while 10-7 vs the top 100, has a doughnut for top 50 wins.

SEED EAST SOUTH MIDWEST WEST
1 PITTSBURGH KANSAS OHIO ST NOTRE DAME
2 SAN DIEGO ST BYU NORTH CAROLINA DUKE
3 PURDUE SYRACUSE FLORIDA TEXAS
4 WISCONSIN KENTUCKY CONNECTICUT LOUISVILLE
5 GEORGETOWN ST. JOHNS ARIZONA WEST VIRGINIA
6 KANSAS ST OLD DOMINION VANDERBILT UNLV
7 TEMPLE XAVIER TENNESSEE TEXAS A&M
8 UCLA CINCINNATI GEORGE MASON MISSOURI
9 FLORIDA ST MICHIGAN VILLANOVA UTAH ST
10 GONZAGA WASHINGTON MARQUETTE BUTLER
11 RICHMOND ILLINOIS COLORADO MEMPHIS
12 (FIRST 4 AL) (FIRST 4 AL) CLEMSON MICHIGAN ST
13 BELMONT HARVARD INDIANA ST OAKLAND
14 LONG ISLAND MOREHEAD ST WOFFORD KENT ST
15 ST. PETERS BOSTON U BUCKNELL LONG BEACH ST
16 UNC-ASHEVILLE (FIRST 4 AQ) (FIRST 4 AQ) NORTHERN COLO

FIRST FOUR- AT LARGES
VIRGINIA COMM
UAB
VIRGINIA TECH
ALABAMA

FIRST FOUR- AUTO QUALIFIERS
BETHUNE COOKMAN
MCNEESE ST
TEXAS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS-LR

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Championship Week Wednesday 3/9

* No change to the bracket from yesterday, but congratulations go out to Long Island U and Northern Colorado for clinching their spots in the bracket.

* Marquette moves up a line from 12 to 11 for their win over West Virginia. They should be good to go now and give the Big East a record 11 bids.

* Terrible finish for my Rutgers Scarlet Knights, who caught some terrible officiating at the end of their game with St. John's at the Garden. Still, a solid first season for Mike Rice. Things could be looking up in Jersey finally.

* Big day tomorrow with Colorado trying to sew up a bid with a win over Kansas State (for the third time this season), USC making a late charge needs to win over Cal, Southern Miss and Memphis in a big C-USA matchup, Michigan St on life support needing to beat Iowa, Colorado St vs New Mexico in a dandy in the MWC, Virginia Tech looking to avoid the dreaded "bad loss" vs. Georgia Tech, and Washington St with a last gasp vs. Washington.

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Quick Tuesday night update with the happenings around the bracket.

SEED EAST SOUTH MIDWEST WEST
1 PITTSBURGH KANSAS OHIO ST NOTRE DAME
2 SAN DIEGO ST BYU NORTH CAROLINA DUKE
3 FLORIDA SYRACUSE TEXAS PURDUE
4 WISCONSIN KENTUCKY GEORGETOWN LOUISVILLE
5 CONNECTICUT ST. JOHNS ARIZONA WEST VIRGINIA
6 KANSAS ST XAVIER VANDERBILT UNLV
7 TEMPLE OLD DOMINION TENNESSEE TEXAS A&M
8 GEORGE MASON CINCINNATI UCLA MISSOURI
9 FLORIDA ST ILLINOIS VILLANOVA UTAH ST
10 RICHMOND WASHINGTON GONZAGA BUTLER
11 BOSTON COLLEGE UAB MICHIGAN MEMPHIS
12 (FIRST 4 AL) (FIRST 4 AL) MARQUETTE MICHIGAN ST
13 BELMONT HARVARD INDIANA ST OAKLAND
14 LONG ISLAND MOREHEAD ST WOFFORD KENT ST
15 ST. PETERS BOSTON U BUCKNELL LONG BEACH ST
16 UNC-ASHEVILLE (FIRST 4 AQ) (FIRST 4 AQ) NORTHERN COLO

* Butler grabbing the auto bid in the Horizon opens up a spot in the bracket, which (tenuously) went to Virginia Tech. That spot could be "stolen" by Clemson, or one of the SEC twosome.
* St. Mary's losing the WCC final dropped them from one of the last in front of the play-in games to in the play-in game... and quite frankly that spot is really not solid.
* Congrats in particular to Oakland and Belmont, who deserved to be in the NCAA Tournament but probably would have gotten left out had they lost their respective conference tournaments.
* Villanova's freefall has dropped them to a 9 seed.

Sunday, March 6, 2011

3/6 Bracket Update

SEED EAST SOUTH MIDWEST WEST
1 PITTSBURGH KANSAS OHIO ST NOTRE DAME
2 SAN DIEGO ST BYU NORTH CAROLINA DUKE
3 FLORIDA SYRACUSE TEXAS PURDUE
4 WISCONSIN KENTUCKY GEORGETOWN LOUISVILLE
5 CONNECTICUT ST. JOHNS ARIZONA WEST VIRGINIA
6 KANSAS ST XAVIER VANDERBILT UNLV
7 TEMPLE OLD DOMINION VILLANOVA TEXAS A&M
8 GEORGE MASON CINCINNATI TENNESSEE MISSOURI
9 FLORIDA ST ILLINOIS UTAH ST UCLA
10 RICHMOND WASHINGTON GONZAGA BOSTON COLLEGE
11 BUTLER UAB ST. MARY'S MEMPHIS
12 (FIRST 4 AL) (FIRST 4 AL) HARVARD MICHIGAN
13 BELMONT CHARLESTON INDIANA ST OAKLAND
14 IONA MOREHEAD ST MILWAUKEE KENT ST
15 LONG ISLAND BOSTON U BUCKNELL LONG BEACH ST
16 UNC-ASHEVILLE (FIRST 4 AQ) (FIRST 4 AQ) NORTHERN COLO

FIRST FOUR- AT LARGES
VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
MARQUETTE
MICHIGAN ST
COLORADO

FIRST FOUR- AUTO QUALIFIERS
BETHUNE COOKMAN
MCNEESE ST
TEXAS SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE

FIRST 5 OUT
GEORGIA
VIRGINIA TECH
ALABAMA
CLEMSON
USC

* The bracket really falls off at the 10 seed. There are a lot of teams in here that really wouldn't be dancing most years.

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Blind resume time. All have similar RPI's.

Team A: 17-12, 2-8 vs top 50, 8-11 vs top 100; best home/road wins 47, @42; 1 sub 100 loss, worst loss @169; R/N 5-7
Team B: 22-7, 1-3 vs top 50, 4-6 vs top 100; best home/road wins 6, @61; 1 sub 100 loss, worst loss 178-N; R/N 11-4
Team C: 20-9, 2-2 vs top 50, 5-7 vs top 100; best home/road wins 27, @18; 2 sub 100 losses, worst loss @237; R/N 8-7
Team D: 19-9, 2-6 vs top 50, 7-6 vs top 100; best home/road wins 5, @82; 3 sub 100 losses, worst loss @178 (same team as team B's loss, obviously); R/N 8-6
Team E: 21-9, 2-6 vs top 50, 7-7 vs top 100; best home/road wins 23, @50; 2 sub 100 losses, worst loss @163; R/N 8-7
Team F: 19-10, 2-3 vs top 50, 3-6 vs top 100; best home/road wins 12, @33; 4 sub 100 losses, worst loss 180-N; R/N 4-10

If you had to select 3 teams from this group, who would it be?

Monday, February 28, 2011

I have been creating mock brackets for 6 years now, ever since I got into a debate with a co-worker about the quality of Wichita State's and George Mason's resumes versus Seton Hall, etc in 2005-06. I showed him blind resume comparisons of the mid-majors versus middling majors- and without fail, my coworker selected the mids. They obviously validated my impressions that year with Sweet 16 and Final 4 runs, respectively.

Previously I had used Google Docs to distribute my thoughts but since my entries are being added to the Bracket Project Matrix (bracketproject.50webs.com) it would be easier for Mr. BP to collate from this blog.

Without any more fanfare, here is the 2/27 bracket (GREEN = up a line+, RED = down a line-, BLUE = new AQ):

1 PITTSBURGH OHIO STATE KANSAS BYU
2 PURDUE NOTRE DAME DUKE TEXAS
3 FLORIDA SDSU UCONN WISCONSIN
4 NORTH CAROLINA LOUISVILLE GEORGETOWN SYRACUSE
5 ST. JOHNS XAVIER KENTUCKY VANDERBILT
6 WEST VIRGINIA VILLANOVA UNLV GEORGE MASON
7 ARIZONA UCLA OLD DOMINION MISSOURI
8 KANSAS ST CINCINNATI TEXAS A&M TEMPLE
9 TENNESSEE VIRGINIA TECH UTAH ST FLORIDA ST
10 GEORGIA MICHIGAN ST ILLINOIS MARQUETTE
11 WASHINGTON UAB ST MARY'S BUTLER
12 RICHMOND (FIRST 4 AL 2-3) (FIRST 4 AL 1-4) MISSOURI ST
13 MILWAUKEE CHARLESTON PRINCETON BELMONT
14 VERMONT COASTAL CAROLINA LONG ISLAND OAKLAND
15 KENT ST FLORIDA ATLANTIC FAIRFIELD MURRAY ST
16 (FIRST 4 AQ) (FIRST 4 AQ) BUCKNELL LONG BEACH ST

FIRST FOUR- AT LARGES:
COLORADO, BAYLOR, GONZAGA, MICHIGAN
FIRST FOUR- AUTO QUALIFIERS: BETHUNE COOKMAN, TEX SOUTHERN, MCNEESE ST, MONTANA
FIRST FOUR OUT: BOSTON COLLEGE, MEMPHIS, ALABAMA, PENN ST