(Semi-)Final Bracket 3/13

We are here. Selection Sunday, the day college basketball fans across the nation wait for. (It's also the start of daylight savings time so move your clocks forward.) I am on the West Coast today, and have been up for 42 hours straight with only 1 hour of sleep, so hopefully my final analysis isn't off due to that.

Here it is:

FINAL BRACKET

EAST

WASHINGTON, DC

1 PITTSBURGH

16 AKRON

8 TEXAS A&M

9 FLORIDA ST

TAMPA

4 KENTUCKY

13 BELMONT

5 WEST VIRGINIA

12 VCU/VIRGINIA TECH

TUCSON

2 SAN DIEGO ST

15 ST. PETERS

7 TEMPLE

10 GONZAGA

CHICAGO

3 PURDUE

14 LONG ISLAND

6 ARIZONA

11 MARQUETTE

SOUTH

TULSA

1 KANSAS

16 ALABAMA ST/UCSB

8 CINCINNATI

9 UCLA

TUCSON

4 WISCONSIN

13 PRINCETON

5 ST. JOHNS

12 CLEMSON/ALABAMA

TAMPA

2 FLORIDA

15 BOSTON U

7 XAVIER

10 VILLANOVA

WASHINGTON, DC

3 CONNECTICUT

14 MOREHEAD ST

6 OLD DOMINION

11 COLORADO

MIDWEST

CLEVELAND

1 OHIO ST

16 TEX-SA/UALR

8 GEORGE MASON

9 UTAH ST

CLEVELAND

4 SYRACUSE

13 INDIANA ST

5 VANDERBILT

12 PENN ST

CHARLOTTE

2 NORTH CAROLINA

15 UNC-ASHEVILLE

7 WASHINGTON

10 RICHMOND

DENVER

3 BYU

14 WOFFORD

6 KANSAS ST

11 ILLINOIS

WEST

CHARLOTTE

1 DUKE

16 NORTHERN COLORADO

8 MISSOURI

9 MICHIGAN

DENVER

4 LOUISVILLE

13 OAKLAND

5 ARIZONA

12 MICHIGAN ST

CHICAGO

2 NOTRE DAME

15 HAMPTON

7 TENNESSEE

10 BUTLER

TULSA

3 TEXAS

14 BUCKNELL

6 UNLV

11 MEMPHIS

In looking at the final 4 spots for the First Four group, it came down to selecting from a pool of 10: Alabama, BC, Clemson, Georgia, Harvard, USC, UAB, St. Mary's, Virginia Tech, and VCU.

Now, I would have preferred to stick with one or two metrics to finalize the decision but I think it's more complicated than that. Alabama, even with their 81 RPI and 5-8 record against the top 100 with 3 bad losses, will get selected based on their 13 conference wins (including the SEC Tournament.) Clemson beat up BC in a virtual elimination game and has . Virginia Tech, ye of bubble life, may have got the golden ticket by .05 of a second with the win over FSU, which left them at 8-9 vs. the top 100 after today's loss. A loss to FSU may have doomed them to (another) NIT. Finally, while all of the remainders have warts, VCU got the final spot. Yes, they lost 4 in a row to close the season. But they also bounced back and won 2 big games in the CAA tournament and sandwiched in a good road win at Wichita in that losing streak. They are 8-8 vs. the top 100 with 3 big wins vs UCLA, ODU, and GMU- all neutral or away games. USC would be next, highlighted by their top end wins, but I can't get past the 6 sub 100 losses. UAB was 2nd out, and while I think CUSA is better than credited for the rest of their resume is really kind of dull. Their best win was VCU, at home. If I miss on a team (or two), it will be Alabama and/or VCU.

* Note that if Dayton beats Richmond tomorrow, Michigan St falls into the First Four and Dayton takes their 12 seed and VCU is out.